Thursday, 10 September 2015

Election #42 2015 - the polls

We love numbers at my house. I've been watching polls. Even made a graph for our local candidate polling numbers. I like keeping track of things, especially with my memory!

It was interesting in 2006, when the polls were incredibly wrong regarding the NDP wave in Quebec. (The Canadian Federal Election of 2006)
There were issues with polling those on cell phones, as the customers demographics didn't reflect the population.  

In June, 2015 they wrote:
Harper’s problem is simple. The Conservatives are the first choice of 29.2 per cent of the voters, and the second choice of only 6.7 per cent. Harper hits a ceiling at 36 per cent. That would give him seat numbers rather like 2006.
Local Candidates according to Lake 88 (local radio)

Federally (Toronto Star)

What do you think of polls, 24 times out of 25?!  


Red said...

I like stats but I don't think they are terribly valid.

William Kendall said...

My feeling is to trust more in how the campaigns are going- Mulcair and Trudeau and May are running good campaigns, whereas Harper is running what looks increasingly like a massive train wreck. It also speaks volumes that so many cabinet ministers quit or said they wouldn't run this time out- they can see the writing on the wall and don't want to personally lose an election.

Hannah said...

Thanks for commenting on my blog, I like your tiny green frog and cool bird photos in your side bar, such a cute hummer.