Showing posts with label polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label polls. Show all posts

Thursday, 10 September 2015

Election #42 2015 - the polls

We love numbers at my house. I've been watching polls. Even made a graph for our local candidate polling numbers. I like keeping track of things, especially with my memory!

It was interesting in 2006, when the polls were incredibly wrong regarding the NDP wave in Quebec. (The Canadian Federal Election of 2006)
There were issues with polling those on cell phones, as the customers demographics didn't reflect the population.  

In June, 2015 they wrote:
Harper’s problem is simple. The Conservatives are the first choice of 29.2 per cent of the voters, and the second choice of only 6.7 per cent. Harper hits a ceiling at 36 per cent. That would give him seat numbers rather like 2006.
Local Candidates according to Lake 88 (local radio)

Federally (Toronto Star)

What do you think of polls, 24 times out of 25?!  

Sunday, 25 September 2011

Will the provincial election mimic the federal?

It was a shock that the NDP managed to go from 1970s meetings of only a handful of people, to becoming the official opposition in this year's federal election. The pollsters are admitting their screwup. They totally screwed polls by unfairly comparing land lines to cell phone responses.

With the passing of NDP leader Jack Layton, the NDP will have to regroup federally.


A pollster’s painful reckoning: ‘How could I have screwed up so badly?'
 In 1967, the median age was 26. It's now 42. Today's average voter is in his or her early 60s. Young people aren't getting out to vote. At the turn of the penultimate century, 1900, average lifespan was 40. Now it is over 80. A vastly different perspective.
A recent CBC article:

Pollsters grapple with methodology, impact of election polls

Polls seen to have had a 'major impact on the outcome' of last federal election

"I do think this was an interesting election in that it's hard to deny that polls themselves had a major impact on the outcome of the election," said Derek Leebosh of Environics.
He said a CROP poll published shortly after the televised leaders' debate and showing the NDP had leapt into a commanding lead in Quebec was like "a depth charge" exploding in the campaign.

Sweet corn signage- ironic!
Our politicians need to represent all constituents' points of view. Young and old, rich and poor, advantaged and disadvantaged, healthy and sick.
With several provincial elections on the way, we shall see what happens. The Ontario election is coming to a close (Oct. 6th).

Rick Mercer had it right: let's unite the liberals and the NDP. What a hilarious 2011 rant.

Thumbnail


Sign, sign, everywhere a sign.

Rob Ford made it into the Toronto mayor's office on the strength of older voter support, they say. Ontario "Conservative Leader Tim Hudak is probably hoping the same generational fault line will work to his advantage in the October election, Mr. Graves said."

Hudak seems to be relying on the familiar rant, 'healthcare system is broken', and making false claims about the regional LHIN system. It does not cost $300 million to administer it. And if he intends to dismantle it, what kind of system does he envision?

If you have a weak candidate and a weak platform, wrap yourself up in the American flag and talk about the Constitution. -Matthew Stanley Quay, senator (1833-1904) 

Wednesday, 14 September 2011

Polls, pollsters and politicians

What will change? What will remain the same? 

For the most part, statistically speaking, most incumbents will remain in their seats.
This is true!
McGuinty and Hudak locked in statistical tie: poll 

Ottawa, population 900,000
I loathe polls! Look at the mess made in the recent Canadian federal election! There are too many variables, and pollsters haven't come up with a way to select a sample population that works. What with the folks without land lines, using only cell phones, they discounted the cast numbers of us Baby Boomers who actually put pedal to the metal and get out and vote. Young people, who may be cynical, or underwhelmed by the election process, have no one to blame but themselves.
He's silent on the relief or the changes...

The media is blaming the Liberal attack ads that purportedly attack the character of Hudak. Do they think women that gullible? Most women I know believe in their fellow human beings.


Tim Hudak faces an uphill battle to win the trust of female voters in Ontario thanks to Liberal attack ads that amount to a “character assassination” of the rookie Progressive Conservative Leader.

Ontario Liberal ads help McGuinty gain ground as race tightens up

Despite Tory lead, survey shows that Dalton McGuinty is the most trusted on health-care, and that he and Tim Hudak rank evenly when respondents asked whom they trust on the economy


The Tories are leading in the polls, according to a new survey by Nanos Research, and Mr. Hudak is virtually tied with Liberal Leader Dalton McGuinty on who would make the best premier of Ontario. But just one in five women surveyed by Nanos described Mr. Hudak as the most trustworthy leader.
Ontario
Twitter news: 
Anyone notice that Hudak says what he is not going to do, and what he will put a stop to, but has no plans on what he will do. 

In my neck of the woods, Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington, things are pretty crazy. Lots appeared at the recent debate. 



There are elections across this country!

MANITOBA  October 4, 2011
ONTARIO October 6, 2011 
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND October 3, 2011
SASKATCHEWAN November 7th, 2011.
YUKON October 11, 2011